最近李彦宏去了趟印度,聊了聊他眼中的未来10年

“我曾经说过,人工智能能让人永生。这句话什么意思呢?它的意思就是,机器可以变得越来越智能,逐渐可以模拟人类。如今,数据存储设备变得越来越便宜,这让我们可以负担存储大量个人信息的成本。”

出品 / 公众号“百度”(ID:baidu_2000)

1月3日,印度理工学院(IIT)马德拉斯分院举办的 Shaastra 2020 科技节拉开帷幕。

印度理工学院(IIT),被誉为世界最难考大学,录取率低到惊人。

IIT 毕业生多活跃于硅谷、华尔街,据五年前加州大学伯克利分校的一项调查显示,IIT 校友占硅谷创业者的五分之一。

百度创始人、董事长兼 CEO 李彦宏作为受邀嘉宾出席了科技节最知名的“Spotlight Lecture Series”活动,并发表了题为“人工智能时代的创新”的演讲,聊了聊他眼中的未来10年。

活动当天,李彦宏还遇到了一枚“小粉丝”——这位台下最小的观众主动上台找李彦宏签名,大型“追星”现场让大家忍不住鼓掌。

下面为大家带来李彦宏演讲全文:

Good afternoon everyone. It’s so great to see you all come to my talk today on a Saturday afternoon. I heard people who can not get into IIT go to MIT. I know why today because you are so eager to learn new things.

各位下午好,很高兴大家在这个周六的下午来参加我的讲座。我听说没有进入印度理工学院的人才最后去了麻省理工学院,今天我明白了,这是因为在座的各位对探索新知是那么的渴求。

Today I’m going to talk about innovation in the age of AI because everyone knows that AI is the major wave these days.

大家都知道,人工智能是当今世界的一大潮流。今天,我将和大家探讨人工智能时代的创新。

Before I talk about AI, I would like to go over with you what’s happened to the internet after smart phones. Or, how has mobile changed the internet? Of course, this is pretty much a China perspective because I guess most of you are more familiar with the US landscape, but China is slightly different because we have a relatively independent ecosystem in mobile. 

在谈 AI 之前,我想和大家回顾一下智能手机诞生之后互联网的演变,或者说移动时代是如何改变互联网的。当然,在座的各位可能对美国的情况比较熟悉,我将主要从中国的角度进行回顾。中国的情况与美国有些不同,因为我们拥有相对独立的移动互联网生态系统。

The first change is apps becoming isolated islands. What that means is that there are quite a number of large apps that are wrapped around isolated (islands) – the contents, the services are not so easily accessible by search engines or third-party programs. We see that as a trend that more and more apps are doing things independently instead of relying on a search engine. 

首先,应用程序正在变成一座座孤岛。也就是说,很多大型 APP 已经成为相互孤立的状态,它们的内容和服务无法通过搜索引擎或第三方程序方便获取。我们认为这是一种趋势。越来越多的应用程序开始独立运行,不再依赖搜索引擎。

And the second is that content is linked to an author. What that means is in the PC era, we pretty much interacted with web sites or web pages. We know there’s a webmaster behind the website but we probably never think about directly communicating with the webmaster. But in the age of mobile, content is closely linked to authors, especially on social media. 

其次,内容开始直接与作者相连。在个人电脑时代,我们的互动对象主要是网站或网页,我们知道网页的背后是网络管理员、站长,但我们可能从没想过直接和网络管理员进行交流。但是,在移动时代(尤其在社交网络上),所有内容经常会直接与作者紧密相连。

And even today, especially in China, news feeds, orcontent feeds, are very popular. When you search for things, not only (will) you find the relevant content, it’s easy for you to find the author behind the content. So today, when you find the relevant content you can ask questions and most likely that author will directly respond to your questions. This is increasingly the case for mobile internet.

现如今,尤其是在中国,新闻推送或内容推送都非常流行。用户进行搜索时,不仅能查找到相关内容,还能方便地找到该内容的作者。在查找到相关内容后,用户可以提问题,而作者很可能直接回应用户的问题。在移动互联网时代,这种情况越来越普遍。

And the third one is video. Video is becoming the main form of content. We used to see text, then more and more images became available on the internet, and today video has become the most important form of content on the internet. People’s mindsets are also changing toward video content. 

第三是视频的兴起。视频正在成为主要的内容形式。在互联网上,我们最初看到的是文字,后来看到越来越多的图片。当前,视频已经成为互联网上最重要的内容形式。人们对视频内容的心态也在发生变化。

Today, if you search for, let’s say, the general relativity theory, you probably would imagine that a Wikipedia entry would come up as the first result. In the case of Baidu, a Baidu encyclopedia entry would come up as the first result. But if you think about it, a video clip, video content, could be a better answer for this query because we can probably find a very good talker, very good teacher, to talk about the relativity theory in a good way, very easy-to-understand way. 

比如说,如果你搜索广义相对论,你看到的第一条搜索结果可能是维基百科条目。如果以百度为例,那百度百科将会是第一条搜索结果。但请设想一下,一个视频片段或视频形式的内容,可能会是这项查询结果更好的答案。因为我们能找到一个很好的叙述者、很好的老师去用非常简单易懂的形式阐述什么是相对论。

You feel you’re connected to the teacher, to the person who created that content, instead of just hard text. This kind of theory is relatively hard to understand. And video provides a lower barrier to entry for this kind of knowledge and content.

在这种形式下,你能感觉到自己和这位老师、这位讲述者是相连的,而不只是面对一些单一的文字。像相对论这样的理论是比较难以理解的,而视频则降低了此类知识与内容的获得门槛。

So this is what we see during the mobile internet age.

这是我们在移动互联网时代看到的情景。

And in the age of AI, search is evolving too. So, how is AI changing search? 

进入 AI 时代,搜索也在不断发展变化。那么,人工智能究竟如何改变搜索呢?

We’re also seeing a number of trends. The first is that the first result is typically the right answer. Right now about 60% of queries are answered by the first result.

我们目前看到很多新的趋势。首先,第一条搜索结果通常是正确答案,目前搜索首条结果回答了大约60%的查询。

So, we are increasingly giving direct answers instead of a very large number of links for the users to find the right answer. And I believe this kind of scenario will become more and more popular, or, an increasing number of queries will be answered directly by the first result or by a paragraph of content.

有越来越多的搜索将直接得到答案,而不是像过去,给用户大量链接让他们自己去寻找正确答案。我相信这种情况会越来越普遍,也就是说用首条搜索结果或一段内容就能直接解决搜索问题的情况将更多。

So right now it’s like 60%, it will go to 70%, 80%, or even 90%. So increasingly your query will be answered directly instead of going through a list of websites or links. Because, if you think about the search problem, it’s essentially an AI problem. 

目前的首条满足率是60%,之后将上升至70%、80%甚至90%。人们将更容易直接得到正确答案,而不再需要点击不同的链接、浏览不同的网页。因为搜索问题本质上是一个人工智能的问题。

Although, 20, 25 years ago, when search engines became popular, the technology behind it had nothing to do with AI. But search is essentially an AI problem because you basically, humans, express their request, their interest, in the form of queries or text, then we use computers to guess what that human or what user means, then come up with the relevant answer. And if you think about AI, that’s pretty much the definition of AI, letting computers understand humans and serve humans. 

在20、25年前,当搜索引擎刚刚开始流行起来的时候,背后的技术与人工智能毫无关系。现在之所以说搜索本质上是一个人工智能的问题,原因就在于,当人们用文字、问题提出请求或者表达兴趣的时候,计算机会推测人类或用户的意图,从而提供相关答案。而这就是人工智能的本质,即让计算机了解人类、服务人类。

So solving the search problem is pretty much like solving the general AI problem. It is a hard problem, but we are getting closer and closer.

所以说,解决搜索问题实际上更像是解决一个普遍的人工智能问题。这是一个很大的挑战,但我们离目标越来越近了。

Then second, content feed blends with search results. What that means – given that in a lot of cases, in most cases, the first result is the right answer, or we can directly answer your question without having you go through a large number of links, so the rest of the links becomes redundant.

其次,内容推送与搜索结果之间的界限日趋模糊。也就是说,在大多数情况下,一个搜索结果就可以解决你的搜索问题,你不再需要翻看其他链接的时候,这些链接也就成了多余信息。

We actually don’t need to give you a lot of redundant content. So once your query is answered, what we would like to give you is knowledge related to that topic, but not directly on that topic. 

实际上,我们也不需要提供多余信息。一旦你提出的问题已经有了答案,我们会更愿意提供与你搜索的话题相关的其他知识,而不需要与你的问题直接相关。

For example, if you search for Van Gogh, and the first result is about the general introduction of Van Gogh, then the second one can be a general introduction about Monet. It doesn’t have to have the word Van Gogh in it. Once your question is answered, we can expand the content based on your interest, not necessarily related to your query, based on our understanding of your interests, of you as a user. 

比如说你搜索梵高,首条结果是对他的概述,那么第二条可能就是对莫奈的简要介绍。这个结果并不一定需要包含梵高两个字。所以,一旦你提出的问题得到解答,我们就会基于你的兴趣扩展你搜索得到的内容。不需要与你的问题直接相关,而是根据我们对你的兴趣的理解来提供内容。

In the age of mobile, we actually know a lot more about our users than the PC era, so we can actually extend the user’s interests a lot. We can give them more and let users spend more time. 

在移动互联网时代,我们对用户的了解远比在个人电脑时代丰富的多。正因如此,我们才能真正做到扩大对用户兴趣的了解。我们给的内容越多,用户花费的时间也就越多。

In China, on average every user spends about five hours on the mobile phone (per day) and that’s still increasing. People spend more and more time, and for search, we can directly answer users’ queries in one shot, so we are giving more and more relevant content to our users.

在中国,人均每天使用手机的时间大约是五个小时,这个数字还在不断增加。那么就搜索而言,如果我们可以直接满足搜索要求,人们花费的时间越多,就意味着我们正为客户提供越来越多的与之相关的内容。

Then the third, I think many of you already have this kind of experience, the camera and microphone become the new keyboard. You don’t have to express your interest in text only, you can express your interest in speech, in images, or in video. If you are interested in a certain plant and wonder what the name is, you can just use your camera and point to that flower and it will tell you. This has increasingly become accurate because of AI.

第三,我想在座的很多人已经有了这样的体验,相机和麦克风已经成了新的键盘。未来搜索将不仅限于文字,用户还可以用语音、图像或者视频来表达意图。比如你对某个植物感到好奇,不知道它叫什么,那么对它拍个照就会有答案。人工智能使这样的搜索结果变得越来越精确。

So if we have to look back for the past 10 years, as we just entered 2020, I think if we need to put a label on the economy, I would call it the internet economy, because internet changed our lives, changed a lot of things over the past 10 years. 

我们已经步入2020年,回望过去十年,如果要给这一时期的世界经济添加一个标签的话,我认为这个标签应该是互联网经济,因为这十年间,互联网改变了我们的生活,改变了很多东西。

It changed payment, food delivery, retail, ride-hailing. And more importantly, I think entertainment.

互联网改变了支付、外卖、零售和约车方式。我认为更重要的是互联网改变了娱乐方式。

Internet changed entertainment. Ten years ago most of us spent a lot of time watching TV. Today, I was at a forum a couple of weeks ago, it’s about this size, about 400 people. And I asked, who of you watched TV last night, and none of them raised their hand.

在上一个十年,我们大多数人会花很多时间看电视。两周前,我出席了一个论坛,规模跟今天差不多,约有400人在场。当我问道“有没有人昨晚看电视了”,没有一个人举手。

Today they spend, you know, five hours playing games or watching short videos just using their mobile phone. They don’t watch TV anymore. So the internet fundamentally changed the way people entertain themselves. But, going forward, I think we are entering a new age, the age of AI. So, the characteristics of the economy will also change. 

今天,人们会用手机玩几个小时的游戏或者看几个小时的短视频,但根本不会去看电视。也就是说,互联网从根本上改变了人们的娱乐方式。但是,展望未来,我认为我们正在进入一个新的时代——人工智能时代,而世界经济的特征也将随之发生变化。

So in the coming decade, I would label it as “intelligent economy”. What does that mean, is that if we can see that internet changed the way we consume, or internet changed the way we entertain ourselves, the intelligent economy will change the way we produce. It will significantly improve productivity for humans.

未来十年,智能经济将成为世界经济的新标签。如果说互联网改变了我们的消费方式、娱乐方式,那么智能经济将改变我们的生产方式,将大大提高人类的生产力。

There are also three layers I’d like to go through. The first one is the new mode of human-machine interaction, the second one is how AI transforms industry after industry, and the last one I’d like to talk about is the infrastructure for AI.

这一点也可以分成三个方面来讲解。首先是全新的人机交互模式,其次是人工智能将变革各行各业,最后是人工智能基础设施。

The new human-computer interaction. I think many of you already have this kind of experience. Today, new cars sold on the market are all connected cars, meaning that they are connected to the internet. When you get into a car, you have a screen (that is) bigger and better than your mobile phone screen. You have more expensive microphones, you have cameras, all kinds of sensors in the car, so essentially when you get into the car, you don’t need to use your mobile phone anymore. 

我想在座很多人已经体验过人机交互的新模式。当前市场上销售的新车都是互联汽车,都是连接互联网的车。进入车内,你会看到一个比手机更大、更好的屏幕。车内配备了更昂贵的麦克风、摄像头、以及各种类型的传感器。因此从本质上讲,当你进入车内之后,就不再需要使用手机了。

So you can see that it’s pretty much all voice controlled. It connects with all kinds of car services, content, and it responds on a continuous basis. You don’t have to use wake words every time.And this is an experience that’s already on the market today.

正如在视频中见到的,这几乎都是语音控制的。车内各种服务、内容都具备语音控制功能,并且可以连续响应。在这种情况下,我们不必每次都要使用唤醒词,现在上市的汽车已经具备这一功能。

And at home, you will also have an experience that is very different from today’s mobile internet.

我们在家也能得到与当今移动互联网截然不同的体验。

So when you have a smart display at home like this, chances are that you will use your mobile phone less. If you want to know the weather tomorrow, you ask this kind of smart display and it will answer you directly. But if you want to get the weather report from your mobile phone, you typically need to pull out your mobile phone from your pocket, unlock it, find the right app, and type in the destination. It requires a lot of steps.

所以,当家里有这样一台智能屏时,我们就有可能不再那么依赖手机了。假如想知道明天的天气,我们只要对智能屏问一句,它就可以立刻回答。但是如果要通过手机知道,我们通常需要从兜里掏出它,解锁,打开 APP,输入相应的关键词……需要很多很多步骤。

But for a voice-first device like this, it’s much more direct and more convenient. The barrier to entry is also lower. You don’t even need to be literate. You use talk and it will get you the answer.

但是对于这样的语音设备,它更直接、更方便,使用门槛也更低。我们甚至不需要识字,只需要说出问题,它就能给出答案。

So because of this, for the past 10 years, we humans are increasingly dependent on mobile phones. I would say over the next 10 years we will be less dependent on the mobile phone, less and less, because wherever you go, there are surrounding sensors, there are infrastructure, that can answer your question, that can serve you. So you don’t have to pull out your mobile phone every time. This is the power of AI.

正因为如此,在过去十年里,我们越来越依赖手机,而对于未来十年,我有一个判断:我们对手机依赖程度会逐步地降低。因为无论走到哪里,我们周围都有传感器,有基础设施,它们可以回答我们的问题,为我们服务,所以我们不必每次都掏出手机。这就是人工智能的力量。

In production, we also have this kind of new human-machine interaction. We call it “digital person”. It’s essentially a virtual assistant in the form of human, and doing things that complete your task, like this:

在生产中,也存在这种新型的人机交互模式——我们称之为“数字人”。它本质上是一个人型虚拟助手,能够帮助我们完成任务。例如:

Why is this useful? In this case, we’re using it for bank services. A lot of banks can not afford to open all kinds of different branches in many cities. It’s very expensive to rent that kind of real estate and hire lots of people. But we can establish this kind of virtual assistant, if you want to open a bank account or if you want to borrow money, or any kind of bank services that require human assistance, you can do that through this kind of virtual assistant. 

为什么这是有用的?在这个案例中,我们将其应用到银行服务中。很多银行都无力在各大城市开设分行,因为租金以及雇用大量人员的成本太高。但是,如果用户想要开设一个银行帐户,或者想要借钱,或者任何需要人工协助的银行服务,我们都可以通过这种虚拟助手来实现。

And we found that people, users, feel more comfortable to deal with a virtual person than a real person. So not only does it save money, save space, it also becomes more user-friendly. You don’t have any pressure. You can say whatever you want and do whatever you want.

而且我们发现,与真实的人相比,用户与虚拟人打交道时感觉更舒服。这样不仅节省资金,节省空间,而且也更加人性化。在虚拟人面前,我们没有任何压力:可以没有顾虑地交谈,做任何想做的事。

So all of these are changing the way we interact with computers or machines. And AI is also transforming a lot of industries, in the sense of higher efficiency and lower risk. Let me go through a couple of them. 

所有这些都在改变着我们的人机交互模式。人工智能还在为许多行业带来变革,提高效率降低风险,让我们来看几个例子。

Customer service. You’ve seen the virtual assistant case for banking, but in many other industries, customer service can be transformed by AI. We’ve been working with a number of telecomoperators to assist their customer service using virtual assistants. You know in China, I think in India too, a typical telecom operator has like 100 different plans. When a customer calls in, the customer service people can typically recommend a plan that is suitable for that person.

客户服务。我们已经了解了银行业的虚拟助手案例,在许多其他行业中,人工智能还可以改进客户服务。我们一直与许多电信运营商合作,协助他们使用虚拟助手进行客户服务。不仅在中国,我想在印度也是如此,一般情况下,一位电信运营商会有100种不同的套餐计划。当客户来电时,客服人员通常可以推荐适合该客户的方案。

But how do you figure out what’s the best plan for that user in one or two minutes? It’s very challenging for a real person. But for a virtual assistant, it’s actually very easy and quick, and we can use this kind of virtual assistant to do a much more efficient customer service. That’s for the telecom industry, and for many other industries we can also find similar cases.

但是,如何能在一两分钟之内找出最适合该客户的方案呢?对真人客服来说,做到这一点是非常具有挑战性的。但是对于虚拟助手来说,情况就不同了。它实际上非常简单快捷,能够提供更高效的客户服务。不仅仅是电信行业,对于许多其他行业,我们同样可以找到类似的案例。

For education, it’s a similar thing. We can come up with a personal tutor, personal assistant, to help students to learn new things. When the student has any kind of questions or problems, we use this kind of virtual assistant to help walk through all kinds of knowledge points and help the students learn.

教育也是一样。我们可以找一位私人导师,或私人助教来帮助学生学习新知识。当学生有任何问题或疑问时,我们都可以通过虚拟助手来帮助学生梳理各种知识点,促进学生学习。

Also, for the pharmaceutical industry, AI will accelerate the pace of drug discovery. We see a lot ofstartups doing this. Using AI, you can come up with all kinds of different combinations of molecules as drug targets. So you can very quickly generate a lot of potential drug targets and let the biologists, the scientists, to sift through and validate those drug targets.

同样对于制药行业,人工智能将加快药物研发的步伐。我们看到,已经有很多初创公司都在这样做了。通过人工智能,我们可以提出各种不同的分子组合作为药物靶标,然后非常迅速地生成很多潜在的药物靶标,并让生物学家和科学家筛选和验证这些药物靶标。

AI is transforming transportation. This is a very big deal in China because in China we have built a lot of transport-related infrastructure: highways, metros, overpasses. It costs a lot of money. But the software layer of the transportation has not been improved much. In the age of AI, we think that’s going to change dramatically. This is a video showing you that.

此外,人工智能也在改变着交通方式。这在中国是一件大事,因为在中国,我们已经建造了许多交通基础设施,如高速公路、地铁、立交桥等,这花费巨大。但是,交通运输的软件层面没有太大的改进。在人工智能时代,我们认为这将发生巨大变化。

This is the so-called V2X, vehicle to everything, especially V2I, or vehicle to infrastructure. The roadside units will communicate with cars to improve the efficiency of transportation, avoid blind points on the road, assist self-driving, manage parking.

这就是所谓的 V2X,vehicle to everything,尤其是 V2I,vehicle to infrastructure,车路协同。路侧设备将与车辆进行通讯,以提高交通效率、避免道路盲点、协助自动驾驶、管理泊车等等。

Apollo is an open source platform for automated driving. But it’s not just for driving, I think it’s for the whole transportation system. It’s going to take many more years for fully autonomous cars to be available everywhere. But before that we can already use AI to significantly improve transportation.

Apollo 是一个自动驾驶开源平台。但我认为,它不仅仅可用于驾驶,还可以用于整个交通系统。就目前的情况看来,要让全自动驾驶汽车在世界各地普及,还需要很长时间。但在那之前,我们可以用人工智能来显著改善当下的交通状况。

Today, every year, more than a million people get killed in car accidents. We think using AI we can significantly reduce the fatality rate for that. Using AI, if you take over the traffic lights you can in real time get a sense of how many cars are there, which direction are they driving, and at what speed, and you can intelligently remind cars that are at risk using the roadside sensors. You can also in real time adjust the traffic light time so that the whole city works in a harmonious way, that the delay will be significantly reduced. 

每一年,都有超过一百万的人在交通事故中丧生。我们认为,人工智能可以大大降低由交通事故引发的死亡。比如在交通信号灯处使用人工智能,可以实时了解路口有多少车辆,以及它们的行驶方向和速度,并且可以通过路边传感器实现对危险车辆的智能提醒。此外,人工智能还可以实时调整交通信号灯的时间,使整个城市的交通更加和谐,从而大大减少交通延误。

In a Chinese city called Baoding we took over almost all the traffic lights in that city and we were able to reduce the wait time by 20% to 30% during peak hours, so reduce traffic delays by 20% to 30%. 

在中国保定,我们的人工智能系统几乎运用到这座城市的所有交通信号灯。在高峰时段我们可以将路口等待时间缩短20%到30%,从而减少了20%到30%的交通延误。

Now let’s talk about the infrastructure. We know that infrastructure is very important. Highways and high speed rail significantly propelled the growth of China’s economy over the past few decades, but going forward, I think the infrastructure for AI will significantly propel the speed of innovation. That includes the app development platform,deep learning framework, general AI technology,and chips designed specifically for AI.  

现在,我们来谈谈基础设施。我们都知道,基础设施非常重要。在过去的几十年中,高速公路和高铁极大地推动了中国经济的增长,但展望未来,我认为人工智能基础设施将极大地推动中国经济的创新发展。其中包括应用开发平台、深度学习框架、通用人工智能技术和专为人工智能设计的芯片。

At Baidu, we have more than 2,000 engineers working on our AI platform. The goal is to let all the other developers, we have millions of developers, to develop all kinds of applications in a more convenient way, a faster way, and a lower cost way.

百度有超过2000名工程师正在致力于发展我们的人工智能平台。而我们的全球开发者社区有高达数百万名开发人员,我们的目标是让所有开发人员都能以更方便、更快捷的方式和更低的成本来开发各种应用程序。

For conversational AI, we have DuerOS that’s used for smart speakers, smart display, or any kind of IOT devices. For Baidu Cloud, it’s optimized for all kinds of AI applications. Apollo, I’ve talked about it, it’s an open source platform for autonomous driving. We now have more than 175 eco partners, including all of the major OEMs, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Ford. And for Baidu Brain we provide all kinds of basic AI capabilities such as voice recognition, computer vision, natural language processing, and all kinds of recommendation platforms that we use for mobile content. And PaddlePaddle is the deep learningframework originated from China, like Tens or Flow or PyTorch.

在对话式人工智能系统方面,我们拥有用于智能音箱、智能屏或任何物联网设备的 DuerOS。我们的百度智能云也针对各种人工智能应用进行了优化。就像我刚刚提到过的,Apollo 是一个自动驾驶开源平台。现在,我们已经拥有超过175个合作伙伴,其中包括各大汽车主机厂商(OEM),比如梅赛德斯、宝马、丰田、福特等。通过百度大脑,我们提供多种基础人工智能能力,例如语音识别、计算机视觉、自然语言处理以及用于移动端内容的各种推荐平台。飞桨(PaddlePaddle)是源于中国的深度学习框架,类似于 TensorFlow 或 PyTorch。

So AI is a big wave, but not every company, not everyone has the power to develop a full-fledged cutting edge AI technology. That’s why AI platform is very important and that’s why we’ve devoted a lot of resources to this kind of open source, open platform so that everyone can take advantage of that. 

可以说,人工智能是新兴的浪潮,但不是每个公司、每个人都有能力开发出成熟的人工智能尖端技术。这就是为什么人工智能平台非常重要、为什么我们在这种开源开放平台上投入大量资源的原因:让每个人都可以方便地从中获益。

We also use AI for public welfare.

我们还将人工智能用于公益事业。

We use AI to help find missing people. In China, we’ve already found more than 9,000 missing people using AI technology, pretty much facial recognition technology. Even if after aperson is missing for more than 20-years, we had a case, a boy, he was lost at age four and at age 25 he was identified as that missing person. 

我们用人工智能帮助寻找走失人口。在中国,我们使用人工智能技术——主要是人脸识别技术,已经找到了超过9000名走失人口,其中有的人已经走失长达二十多年。我们有一个案例,一个男孩走失时才4岁,而我们的系统在他25岁时仍然成功地找到了他。

And we use AI to help the visually impaired people. We’ve installed the Baidu Xiaodu smart speaker in a lot of the blind massage parlors. Those massage therapists who are visually impaired can use voice to control air conditioning, control the curtains, control a lot of IoT devices, which makes their life much easier.

我们还用人工智能来帮助视障人士。我们已经在很多盲人按摩院安装了百度小度智能音箱。那些患有视力障碍的按摩师可以使用语音来控制空调、窗帘等其他物联网设备,从而使他们的生活更加方便。

So AI can be used in a lot of these public welfare cases.

因此,人工智能在此类公益应用方面前景广阔。

I also have a claim, AI will make you immortal. What does that mean? It means that machines can become smarter and smarter, can learn from humans. And today, storage has become cheaper and cheaper, and we can afford to store a lot of personal information. 

我曾经说过,人工智能能让人永生。这句话什么意思呢?它的意思就是,机器可以变得越来越智能,逐渐可以模拟人类。如今,数据存储设备变得越来越便宜,这让我们可以负担存储大量个人信息的成本。

For example, I make a speech here and it is video-taped, it can be stored for a long time. And your voice can be stored, your video can be stored, your text, your articles, everything about yourself can be digitized. 

例如,我在这里讲话,通过录制视频可以把我说过的话长期存储起来。我们的声音可以被存储,视频可以被存储,文字、文章以及关于我们自己的一切都可以用数字化的方式保存起来。 

And later on, based on this kind of digital information or content, computers can learn how you think. So after a while, it’s not hard to imagine when Tim Cook wants to evaluate whether Apple should work on an autonomous driving project, he can actually ask Steve Jobs, the digital copy of Steve Jobs, if that’s a good idea. Because there is a lot of information about Steve Jobs stored on the internet, and computers can learn the way Jobs thinks. So this makes Jobs immortal. But it’s not just Jobs, anyone, anyone’s information can be stored, can be learned, and made available when necessary. So in a sense, AI will make you immortal. 

以后,根据这些数字信息或内容,计算机可以模拟人类的思维方式。因此,不难想象,再过一段时间,如果蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)想评估苹果是否应该开展自动驾驶项目,他就可以询问史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs),或者说经过数字化的史蒂夫·乔布斯。因为互联网上存储了大量有关史蒂夫·乔布斯的信息,所以计算机可以模拟出乔布斯的思考方式。通过这种方式,可以让乔布斯永远地活下去。不仅是乔布斯,任何人的信息都可以被存储,被计算机学习和模拟,并且在需要时进行信息输出。因此从某种意义上说,人工智能可以让人永生。

That’s how fascinating innovation is, that’s how fascinating AI is. India is one of the fastest-growing smart phone markets in the world, and India is also a very large developing country right next to China. We’ve seen fast growth for both countries over the past few decades. And I think for next decade, there will be more opportunities for us. So we at Baidu are very much looking forward to working with Indian institutions to make a better world through innovation. Thank you all.

这就是创新的魅力所在,这就是人工智能的魅力所在。印度是全球增长最快的智能手机市场之一,也是位居中国之后的第二大发展中国家。在过去的几十年中,我们两国的经济都在快速增长。我认为在下一个十年中,我们将拥有更多的机会。因此百度非常期待能与印度的机构合作,通过创新来创造更美好的世界。谢谢各位。

随后,Robin 还接受了主持人的现场访问:

Host: Firstly, what are the future plans of Baidu? Does it plan to grow internationally?

主持人:首先我想问的是,百度未来的规划是什么?在国际化方面有什么计划吗?

Robin: We already have a presence in a number of markets, like Japan, Thailand, and Egypt, but our main product, search, is pretty much domestic. We think in the age of AI, search will be very different from what we see today. Once we can transform search into a very different product, we will be ready to launch that internationally.

Robin:百度已经在一些国际市场进行了布局,譬如日本、泰国和埃及。但我们的主要产品,搜索,目前主要在中国市场发展。我想在人工智能时代,搜索将和我们今天看到的形式大不相同。一旦我们将搜索升级转化为不一样的产品,我们也就做好了在全球投放的准备。

Host: Secondly, Baidu’s search engine has been custom made in the Chinese language. Can it be edited so that it can be used in Hindi or English as well?

主持人:第二个问题是,百度搜索引擎的定制语言一直都是中文,有没有可能进行一些更改,比如增加印地语或英文搜索?

Robin: The fundamental technology I think is very similar, but like I said, it’s still evolving very quickly. In the past, I think search technology is pretty much a statistic technology. Today, everything is machine learning. As we progress, as AI technology progresses, as natural language understanding technology progresses, like I talked about during the presentation, more and more user requests will be answered by one shot. In that case, I think search will be very different and that will create a lot of opportunities. In the future, you will not be able to distinguish between search and feed, or search and recommendation. Search is giving you the right answer right away, but recommendation will let you consume a lot more contentand let you learn a lot more knowledge. You will have much better access to a lot of new knowledge.

Robin:我觉得基础技术都非常类似,但就像我刚才讲到的,搜索技术的发展日新月异。以前,搜索技术在我看来基本上就是一种统计技术。但在今天,所有的一切都是机器学习。随着人类的进步,人工智能技术以及自然语言处理技术的发展,越来越多的用户需求会一下子就得到满足。因此,我觉得搜索将会非常不同,会带来很多的机遇。未来,可能将无法区分搜索与信息流之间的区别,或者说搜索与内容推荐之间的区别。搜索是立刻给你需要的正确答案,但推荐将会使你获取更多的内容,学习到更多的知识。你也因此得以有机会接触到更多的新知识。

Host: Finally, what would be your message to all these Indian entrepreneurs who aspire to make a bid in the technology world?

主持人:最后一个问题是,您对所有有志于在科技领域有所作为的印度企业家们有什么建议?

Robin: I’m very happy to see you all here on a Saturday afternoon, I think you are very talented and India is a very large market. We are very fortunate to live in an age full of innovation opportunities, especially in the area of artificial intelligence. I think once you get into this field, focus on things that you are familiar with, focus on things that you really love, you will be able to find great opportunities.

Robin:非常高兴在这样一个周六的下午与大家相聚。我觉得大家都非常有才华,同时,印度也是一个巨大的市场。非常幸运的是,我们生活在一个充满了各种创新机会的时代,尤其是在人工智能领域。一旦你跨进这个领域,专注于自己熟悉的东西,投入到自己真心热爱的事情上,你一定可以找到非常好的机会。

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